The energy transition will be impossible without fossil fuels …


(MENAFN- The energy transition will be impossible without fossil fuels

A week after the end of COP26, the global energy industry is now focused on the annual Abu Dhabi International Oil and Gas Conference ADIPEC2021. A range of international oil companies, national oil companies and oil service companies come together to discuss not only the impact of the COP26 agreements, but also other challenges facing the industry.
The conference, considered one of the most important events of the year for the industry, will face a wave of criticism and negative attention from the media, Western governments and activist shareholders. At the same time, the call for realism and transparency on energy transition actions and the fight against climate change is growing. During the opening address of ADIPEC2021, ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber frankly addressed the critical points that will be on the table over the next decade. Al Jaber highlighted the problems facing the industry in his opening statement: “We are meeting at a historic moment. The global community has just concluded COP26… and overall it was a success. Yet the current energy dynamic has revealed a fundamental dilemma. While the world is committed to accelerating the energy transition … it remains heavily dependent on oil and gas “.
According to the CEO of ADNOC, the demand for oil and gas has been very strong around the world, exceeding the current supply and causing an energy crisis in the main consumption regions such as the EU, China and even the states. -United. One of the main reasons for this imbalance in the oil markets is a decade of underinvestment, leading to supply problems. Dr Sultan Al Jaber reiterated that the oil and gas industry needs to invest around $ 600 billion per year until 2030 to increase the global supply of oil and gas. This claim directly contradicts what the international media and Western governments seem to report. As Al Jaber pointed out, “Although renewables are the fastest growing segment of the energy mix, oil and gas are still by far the most important and will continue to be so for decades to come. to come “.
The CEO of ADNOC stressed that the current energy transition strategy seems to consist in removing part of the modern energy system without having built anything to replace it. Al Jaber stressed that “if we are to successfully transition to the energy system of tomorrow, we cannot simply disconnect from the energy system of today”. UAE Energy Minister Al Mazrouei and OPEC Secretary General Barkindo both echoed the sentiment. If these parties all claim to be committed to the fight against climate change and energy transition, they call for a certain realism. Oil and gas cannot simply be excluded from the energy transition, but should rather be mainstreamed and included in any future planning. As UAE Energy Minister Al Mazrouei made clear in another discussion at ADIPEC, there must be a clear call for transparency in energy transition policies. Western countries, because global energy demand is undeniably growing.
All possible energy solutions must be considered when it comes to meeting the world’s energy demand until 2050. As OPEC leader Barkindo has reiterated in several meetings, the world will need supplies in hydrocarbons to meet not only current demand, but also to counter the increase in calls from emerging economies in Africa, India and elsewhere. With population growth of over 2 billion people in the coming decades, there is pressure to increase all energy options in the mix. Oil and gas are clearly needed to support economic growth and global energy demand over the coming decades.
OPEC and its members are clearly fed up with the rhetoric and idealism of some governments and international institutions. If they say they are committed to the energy transition, they recognize that it will be a long and difficult process.
ADNOC CEO Al Jaber believes the company’s plan to increase production to 5 million barrels per day by 2030 will not threaten the overall emissions targets set by the United Arab Emirates. In recent years, ADNOC has stepped up its investments in carbon capture and storage, increasing its capacity from 800,000 tonnes of CO2 per year to 5 million. At the same time, ADNOC recently announced that from January, up to 100% of the electricity in its grid will come from clean sources, including nuclear and solar. These developments will significantly reduce ADNOC’s operational emissions. The introduction of renewable energy and enterprise-wide nuclear power generation is a major step towards the UAE’s Net-Zero strategy by 2050. Others will follow soon, as evidenced by the strategies aggressive renewables from Saudi Arabia and Aramco.
The main message to the world’s oil and gas producers is clear. If the energy transition is to become a success, it will have to be a transition, which will take time. Without cooperation and understanding between producers, consumers and governments, the transition will be much more difficult. At ADIPEC, the main message seems to be the need for increased cooperation and transparency, while admitting to consumers that oil and gas will be the bulk of the energy mix for a very long time. OPEC Barkindo said growth in demand for crude oil would slow, but would still reach 108.4 million bpd in 2045.
At the same time, the energy transition is becoming a battleground for emerging African countries. Strong demands have been made by African energy leaders not to end the funding of hydrocarbon-based operations and future projects that serve as the backbone on which emerging markets in Africa need to build their future. . During one of the sessions of the strategic conference, the Minister of Mines of Equatorial Guinea, Gabriel Mbaga Obiang Lima, strongly pleaded for the future of hydrocarbons in his country and in Africa as a whole. African energy leaders have made it clear that without the revenues from hydrocarbons, the future for many African countries would be bleak. He reiterated that if Western countries and international organizations are to improve Africa’s future economic growth, access to energy, water, food and markets for their natural resources will be necessary. If no financial and operational support is provided, Africa will fall behind while more developed countries reap the benefits of change.
The call for both cooperation and realism of ADIPEC2021 should not be ignored. As Al Jaber and others have made it clear, it will not be possible to successfully implement a global energy transition by excluding hydrocarbons and binding investments. A clean and perhaps even emissions-free future is possible, but it will take fossil fuels to achieve it.
By Cyril Widdershoven for Oil chauffage


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